My very interesting, I really appreciate this kind of readings as I learn a lot from them. Hopefully at some point you can do a detailed analysis of Generation mining, Chalice Mining and Future Metals and get to know a bit about the current status of their projects. Best regards and very good work!
I was lucky not to lose everything I had, which is the most common outcome in exploration.
I do not understand where the capital/investors for numerous explorers or similar investments like small Biotech companies come from, again and again. Do you happen to have any idea? As in such investment a lot of money is lost, often quick, so I do not know how are numerous such companies consistently able to raise money ...
A lot of people made money in exploration in the 90s. So I guess those investors are willing to pour money into these stocks. A lot of these firms are BS but since the sector is in a bear market, spotting the winners among the survivors is getting easier
I mean, investing in explorers most of the investors lost (most of) the money, so I think they need new investors all the and I wonder where they find them. I have similar question for small Biotech etc.
Alberto, I have been investing for 40 years and if there is anything I've learnt its my humanity, aka humans are wired in a way that works against making money and for losing money, and I know for fact that 'm all human! You don't need 40 years of it but there is not substitute for experience. I've gone through every crash since 1980 (oil crash). There's nothing more exhilarating than a crash, I didn't say fun. You just don't forget that stuff. You carry it with you and the more times you go through it and pay the price, the more it sticks with you - as long as you're still in the game. It's a game of capital preservation. The best trader I ever met told me "you get 10,000 more chances, but you need your capital". I read a book many years ago and the author said investing is not science, it is not art. It is a craft. I think that is the best description. For as talented and gifted as Michaelango was, even he had to apprentice and learn from someone! He continued to learn and hone his skills his whole life. We need to do the same in the markets.
Alberto, I can't think of any stock or sector that I'd ever go all in on. "All in" will mean different things to different people and "all in" $30,000 for a guy with a great job and take home income at the beginning of his career is different than all in for someone at 40 with a family and mortgage. You did absolutely fantastically with uranium and you get all the credit and my admiration for pulling it off!! But it's not something I could have done because that kind of patience that's not me no matter how strongly I felt about the sector. But also it wouldn't fit my risk profile and most people's! I'm often a half empty kind of guy; not all the time but much of the time. We had a nuclear accident or some black swan event involving radiation it would have been a very different picture for uranium delaying the take up who knows how long. I focus a lot on position sizing, always thinking about risk / reward. I'm sure everyone does and it's different for everyone. Maybe with experience I have practice with when the shit hits the fan!
I've always invested in microcaps. Microcaps are called this until big crashes - then I noticed that they are called speculations, lol. Again, we have not had a big one since 2008. I can tell you that the during the big one or less big corrections one thing I had to deal with was the emotional baggage tied to selling. My illiquid JR went down say 30% in few days and that beauty I missed went down 20% - but it also is down say, 40% from its top a month or two earlier( not in the same time frame as my POS) . Seeing that 40% drop would make it much easier psychologically to sell mine and trade for the one that had gotten away.
Gran artículo Alberto. Me ha picado la curiosidad por alguna de las empresas que comentas. Respecto a Manolete Partners, balance muy sólido (con margen de seguridad según los criterios clásicos de Benjamin Graham, donde los activos a corto plazo superan a los pasivos totales), pero me llama la atención la falta de generación de caja históricamente, debido sobre todo a las inversiones en nuevos casos que superan las ganancias de los que van cerrando. Aunque entiendo que precisamente estos nuevos generaran los ingresos del futuro, no me terminan de convencer estos negocios que necesitan consumir tanto working capital para seguir creciendo. Por cierto, ¿sabes que pasa con el informe de resultados de este año?.
Si, así es. Pero tuvieron un cambio de empresa auditora (rutinario, nada de lo que preocuparse). Y se les juntó con las vacaciones. Así que achaco a eso el retraso en la publicación
Une vez más, sorprendido y agradecido por tu gran aporte Alberto. Excelente divulgación! Nos motiva para seguir aprendiendo e invirtiendo. Respecto a "el juego de la inversión consiste en encontrar acciones con muy pocas posibilidades de bajada", ¿conoces a Euro Manganese (EMN, único proyecto de reciclaje de manganeso en UE ? de ser así: ¿crees que encaja en lo que destacas de Seth Klarman?. Por último: ¿Qué grado de importancia le darías al impacto de un proyecto/empresa minero y lo que representa en el PIB del país en el que se encuentra?
Gracias Andy. No conocía Euro Manganese Inc, se sabe como van a financiar el proyecto? Es un proyecto grande y costoso.
"¿Qué grado de importancia le darías al impacto de un proyecto/empresa minero y lo que representa en el PIB del país en el que se encuentra? " Es una pregunta complicada. Hay dos ejemplos que son opuestos: 1. Níger: El uranio es su mejor negocio y aun así la junta militar ha echado a los franceses y a Goviex, complicando la cosa. 2. Mongolia: La nueva mina de cobre es un aporte enorme para el país y está yendo muy bien.
Mi respuesta: Depende del país, cada región es un mundo.
Respecto a EMN, sólo tengo constancia de la financiación (ya realizada) por parte del Banco europeo para reconstrucción y desarrollo de CAD 8.5 millones + Orion Resources de USD 100 millones (préstamo convertible a royalty).
En relación al tema de PIB, me queda bastante claro tu postura. Desconozco el porcentual de los ejemplos que has comentado, pero me ayuda para poder analizar el contexto de Adriatic en Bosnia (creo que representaría el 2%) y otro contexto como el de Cobre Panamá (5% del PIB).
Gracias Alberto! y enhorabuena por le entrevista en el magnifico canal Triangle Investor
Gracias
Gracias a ti!
Vaya pasada de post Alberto, muchas gracias por aportar tanto de manera desinteresada a la comunidad, eres un ejemplo para muchos. Un afectuoso saludo
Gracias César!!
muy bueno el informe alberto... yo he tenido todos esos sesgos del inversor.....un placer leerte
Gracias Alejandro!!
Thanks Alberto, great to see your thinking expressed so clearly and succinctly. And lovely to see the shout out to Yeimy! ❤️
Thanks Nic!
I'm investing because of you, that's all I have to say
Thank you very much Arnau! I am touched by your comment!
My very interesting, I really appreciate this kind of readings as I learn a lot from them. Hopefully at some point you can do a detailed analysis of Generation mining, Chalice Mining and Future Metals and get to know a bit about the current status of their projects. Best regards and very good work!
Thank you Manu. You can find analysis on those firms on my PGM report. Link: https://albertoag.substack.com/p/palladium-and-platinum-the-dawn-of?r=3hhq06
Hope it helps
Excellent! Thank you for sharing!
Thank you very much Gonçalo!
I was lucky not to lose everything I had, which is the most common outcome in exploration.
I do not understand where the capital/investors for numerous explorers or similar investments like small Biotech companies come from, again and again. Do you happen to have any idea? As in such investment a lot of money is lost, often quick, so I do not know how are numerous such companies consistently able to raise money ...
A lot of people made money in exploration in the 90s. So I guess those investors are willing to pour money into these stocks. A lot of these firms are BS but since the sector is in a bear market, spotting the winners among the survivors is getting easier
I mean, investing in explorers most of the investors lost (most of) the money, so I think they need new investors all the and I wonder where they find them. I have similar question for small Biotech etc.
No idea about Biotech. Clearly that is not the case in exploration because old investors are still pouring money into the sector
Alberto, I have been investing for 40 years and if there is anything I've learnt its my humanity, aka humans are wired in a way that works against making money and for losing money, and I know for fact that 'm all human! You don't need 40 years of it but there is not substitute for experience. I've gone through every crash since 1980 (oil crash). There's nothing more exhilarating than a crash, I didn't say fun. You just don't forget that stuff. You carry it with you and the more times you go through it and pay the price, the more it sticks with you - as long as you're still in the game. It's a game of capital preservation. The best trader I ever met told me "you get 10,000 more chances, but you need your capital". I read a book many years ago and the author said investing is not science, it is not art. It is a craft. I think that is the best description. For as talented and gifted as Michaelango was, even he had to apprentice and learn from someone! He continued to learn and hone his skills his whole life. We need to do the same in the markets.
Very well put 31Floors. Excellent comment, any advice given that you have a lot more experience investing than I do?
Alberto, I can't think of any stock or sector that I'd ever go all in on. "All in" will mean different things to different people and "all in" $30,000 for a guy with a great job and take home income at the beginning of his career is different than all in for someone at 40 with a family and mortgage. You did absolutely fantastically with uranium and you get all the credit and my admiration for pulling it off!! But it's not something I could have done because that kind of patience that's not me no matter how strongly I felt about the sector. But also it wouldn't fit my risk profile and most people's! I'm often a half empty kind of guy; not all the time but much of the time. We had a nuclear accident or some black swan event involving radiation it would have been a very different picture for uranium delaying the take up who knows how long. I focus a lot on position sizing, always thinking about risk / reward. I'm sure everyone does and it's different for everyone. Maybe with experience I have practice with when the shit hits the fan!
I've always invested in microcaps. Microcaps are called this until big crashes - then I noticed that they are called speculations, lol. Again, we have not had a big one since 2008. I can tell you that the during the big one or less big corrections one thing I had to deal with was the emotional baggage tied to selling. My illiquid JR went down say 30% in few days and that beauty I missed went down 20% - but it also is down say, 40% from its top a month or two earlier( not in the same time frame as my POS) . Seeing that 40% drop would make it much easier psychologically to sell mine and trade for the one that had gotten away.
I'd say there is not substitute for the pain of market crashes and being really scared. :)
Gran artículo Alberto. Me ha picado la curiosidad por alguna de las empresas que comentas. Respecto a Manolete Partners, balance muy sólido (con margen de seguridad según los criterios clásicos de Benjamin Graham, donde los activos a corto plazo superan a los pasivos totales), pero me llama la atención la falta de generación de caja históricamente, debido sobre todo a las inversiones en nuevos casos que superan las ganancias de los que van cerrando. Aunque entiendo que precisamente estos nuevos generaran los ingresos del futuro, no me terminan de convencer estos negocios que necesitan consumir tanto working capital para seguir creciendo. Por cierto, ¿sabes que pasa con el informe de resultados de este año?.
Un saludo.
Muchas gracias!! Aparte de lo que comentas tienen un “moat” tremendo: 60% de cuota de mercado.
Su reporte sale en septiembre yo creo
Por lo que he visto en su web, en Septiembre sacan el informe del AGM, mientras que informe anual de resultados suelen sacarlo en Junio.
Si, así es. Pero tuvieron un cambio de empresa auditora (rutinario, nada de lo que preocuparse). Y se les juntó con las vacaciones. Así que achaco a eso el retraso en la publicación
To me, this is The Bible. Grateful.
What a beautiful comment Jorge. Thank you so much. If you are ever in Madrid I will gladly invite you to a drink
HI Alberto. I'll be happy to do it, I'm looking forward to meeting you in person
Une vez más, sorprendido y agradecido por tu gran aporte Alberto. Excelente divulgación! Nos motiva para seguir aprendiendo e invirtiendo. Respecto a "el juego de la inversión consiste en encontrar acciones con muy pocas posibilidades de bajada", ¿conoces a Euro Manganese (EMN, único proyecto de reciclaje de manganeso en UE ? de ser así: ¿crees que encaja en lo que destacas de Seth Klarman?. Por último: ¿Qué grado de importancia le darías al impacto de un proyecto/empresa minero y lo que representa en el PIB del país en el que se encuentra?
Gracias de antemano!
Gracias Andy. No conocía Euro Manganese Inc, se sabe como van a financiar el proyecto? Es un proyecto grande y costoso.
"¿Qué grado de importancia le darías al impacto de un proyecto/empresa minero y lo que representa en el PIB del país en el que se encuentra? " Es una pregunta complicada. Hay dos ejemplos que son opuestos: 1. Níger: El uranio es su mejor negocio y aun así la junta militar ha echado a los franceses y a Goviex, complicando la cosa. 2. Mongolia: La nueva mina de cobre es un aporte enorme para el país y está yendo muy bien.
Mi respuesta: Depende del país, cada región es un mundo.
Gracias a ti
Respecto a EMN, sólo tengo constancia de la financiación (ya realizada) por parte del Banco europeo para reconstrucción y desarrollo de CAD 8.5 millones + Orion Resources de USD 100 millones (préstamo convertible a royalty).
En relación al tema de PIB, me queda bastante claro tu postura. Desconozco el porcentual de los ejemplos que has comentado, pero me ayuda para poder analizar el contexto de Adriatic en Bosnia (creo que representaría el 2%) y otro contexto como el de Cobre Panamá (5% del PIB).
Gracias Alberto! y enhorabuena por le entrevista en el magnifico canal Triangle Investor
Great !!! Thank you for sharing.
Menudo informe. Muy buen trabajo Alberto, enhorabuena!!
Gracias Gregorio!!
This is great, Alberto, thank you.
Good to see you here PD! I’ve been on your email list for years.
Alberto is a gem… his SubStack is well worthwhile! Trader Ferg is another worth subscribing to.
Alberto has great insights and as to Ferg, absolutely.
Thank you both!
Thank you for your time PD Mangan!
You make some great points here, thanks for taking the time to write this up!
Thank you very much!